1. Introduction

Video poker is often described with a single “return-to-player” (RTP) figure, but multiplier-based variants challenge that simplification. Ultimate X Gold (by Action Gaming) is built on 3-play, 5-play, and 10-play multi-play draw poker and offers an optional multiplier feature that is activated by betting ten coins per play rather than the usual five-coin maximum.[1] Unlike conventional Ultimate X, multipliers in Ultimate X Gold apply to specific wins (by hand category) and can remain until used, creating a meaningful distinction between (a) long-run returns when continuously purchasing the feature and (b) conditional returns when a player begins play in a favorable multiplier state.[1]

This paper’s goal is to precisely separate these two ideas—long-run RTP versus conditional state-based return—because public discussions of Ultimate X Gold often conflate them. In particular, claims that the game can be “near 200% RTP” can be accurate only in the conditional sense (i.e., under unusually favorable multiplier states), not as an unconditional stationary expectation.

2. Game Description and Rules (as published)

This section summarizes rules and mechanics as documented by Wizard of Odds.

2.1 Multi-play structure and feature cost

Ultimate X Gold can be played as 3-play, 5-play, or 10-play multi-play video poker.[1] Betting 1–5 coins plays like conventional multi-play; betting 10 coins enables the multiplier feature, with wins based on a five-coin bet and the other five coins effectively paying for the feature.[1]

2.2 Which hands have multipliers

In all games except Deuces Wild, the multiplier feature is associated with hand categories from three of a kind up to four of a kind; in Deuces Wild, multipliers are associated with hands from a flush to four deuces.[1]

2.3 Multiplier upgrades and persistence

When the player gets a paying hand on the deal, they earn a “Multiplier Upgrade,” which typically increases multipliers for categories above the dealt paying hand (with specific exceptions such as high pairs affecting lower multipliers in some modes).[1] Multipliers follow predefined progressions and have caps.[1] Wizard of Odds also illustrates how a hand’s multiplier can increase along a progression and how that directly increases payouts for that category when it later hits.[1]

2.4 Key contrast with conventional Ultimate X

For context, conventional Ultimate X (multi-line) activates by betting 10 coins per line; in “Ultimate X mode,” a paying hand both pays immediately and earns a multiplier applied to the following hand in the same position, and a player need not pay for the feature to benefit from a previously earned multiplier.[3] Ultimate X Gold differs in that multipliers are tied to specific win categories and “remain until used,” making persistent favorable states possible.[1]

3. Two RTP Concepts: Long-run RTP vs. Conditional State-Based Return

A major source of confusion is that “RTP” is used to mean two different things:

• Long-run (stationary) RTP with feature continuously purchased. Wizard of Odds presents “five coin return” and “ten coin return” tables for Ultimate X Gold, with returns “based on optimal player strategy.”[1] These are the relevant figures for a player who repeatedly bets ten coins and plays indefinitely.
• Conditional (“in-state”) expected return when favorable multipliers already exist. Because multipliers can persist, a player may begin play when multipliers are unusually high. Wizard of Odds explicitly notes: “If a game has enough multipliers, the short-term return will be over 100%,” motivating a vulture strategy where the player leaves once multipliers are depleted.[1]

This paper uses “conditional return” to describe the second concept and reserves “RTP” for the first unless explicitly stated.

4. Published Long-run Returns (Optimal Strategy, Feature Enabled)

Wizard of Odds reports that Ultimate X Gold’s ten-coin returns vary by game, pay table, and number of lines, and are computed under optimal strategy.[1] For example, in one published return table, Jacks or Better 9/6 appears with a ten coin return of 0.990959 (≈99.10%).[1] In another published table, Jacks or Better 9/6 is shown with a ten coin return of 0.993688 (≈99.37%).[1]

Two observations follow directly from the published tables:

• Even with the feature enabled, typical long-run returns for popular pay tables are below 100%, implying a house edge under standard continuous play.[1]
• The return is sensitive to the exact configuration (pay table, multiplier table variant, and number of lines), and Wizard of Odds notes that proper analysis and correct strategy are difficult in practice.[1]

5. Why Conditional Return Can Exceed 100% (and Approach 200%)

Wizard of Odds states two crucial facts: (1) “the average multiplier will be about 2.9 in this game,” and a baseline strategy can be approximated by multiplying the three-of-a-kind through four-of-a-kind wins by 3;[1] and (2) “If a game has enough multipliers, the short-term return will be over 100%,” which is the basis for vulturing.[1]

This section shows how “nearly 200%” can be a reasonable conditional claim under strong multipliers—without contradicting the sub-100% long-run returns in published tables.

5.1 A transparent calculation using published Jacks or Better return components

Wizard of Odds provides return-component tables for standard video poker pay tables. For 9/6 Jacks or Better, it reports component “Return” contributions by made hand (under optimal strategy), summing to approximately 0.99543904.[2]

In Ultimate X Gold, Wizard of Odds’ strategy note specifically targets multiplying the wins for three of a kind through four of a kind.[1] Using the 9/6 Jacks or Better return components, the contribution from the categories that are typically multiplier-eligible in Jacks or Better is approximately:

• Three of a kind: 0.223344
• Straight: 0.044930
• Flush: 0.066085
• Full house: 0.103610
• Four of a kind: 0.059064[2]

Let M be the sum of those contributions and U be the remainder:
M ≈ 0.497033; U ≈ 0.99543904 − 0.497033 ≈ 0.498406.[2]

Now suppose (as a simplifying approximation aligned with Wizard of Odds’ “multiply by 3” framing) that the effective average multiplier applied to these categories is about m = 3. Then an approximate conditional per-coin return for a player who is not paying the extra five coins (i.e., playing a 5-coin game while multipliers already exist) is:

If one instead uses Wizard of Odds’ reported “average multiplier… about 2.9,” the same calculation gives:

These values are “near 200%” in precisely the sense that Wizard of Odds is describing: a short-term, state-dependent expected return when the machine’s multipliers are already high enough to create a positive (or strongly positive) situation.[1]

Important interpretation: this does not mean the game’s long-run RTP is near 200%. It means that, conditional on encountering a strong multiplier state (often after another player paid to build it), the next sequence of hands can have a very high expected return.

5.2 Vulturing as a state-based stopping strategy

Wizard of Odds explicitly frames a vulture strategy: enter when multipliers make the game positive, exit when they are depleted.[1] It further emphasizes that “almost half the value of the multiplier feature is in the three of a kinds,” and provides conservative entry heuristics based largely on the three-of-a-kind multiplier level.[1] This aligns with the 9/6 Jacks or Better component table: three-of-a-kind represents one of the largest single contributors among the multiplier-eligible categories.[2]

6. Modeling Framework: A Markov Decision Perspective

Because the correct hold decision depends on the current multiplier configuration, Ultimate X Gold is naturally modeled as a state-dependent decision problem. A close analog appears in academic work on Ultimate X variants, including analyses emphasizing non-discounted Markov decision formulations for multiplier-state gambling games.[4]

6.1 State, action, transition, and reward

A standard formalization is:

• State (s): the current vector of multipliers by eligible hand category (and potentially by line, in multi-play).
• Action (a): the player’s hold choice given the dealt hand.
• Transition: depends on the draw outcome and (in Ultimate X Gold) whether a “Multiplier Upgrade” occurs and which multipliers are incremented along their progressions.[1]
• Reward: the payout from the resulting hand, including any multiplier applied to the relevant category.[1]

6.2 Practical implication: strategy complexity and real-world return

Wizard of Odds cautions that writing a “good strategy” for Ultimate X Gold is difficult because the right play depends on multipliers “constantly going up and down,” and suggests using a hand analyzer with post-multiplier pay tables for rigorous play.[1] It also notes that the cost of errors with the feature is likely high for the average player.[1] Thus, while published returns are based on optimal play, realized returns may be substantially lower for typical players.

7. Discussion

7.1 Design intent: small long-run lift, large conditional variance

Wizard of Odds characterizes the “bottom line” of similar feature designs as marginally higher return with the feature on average, but coupled with large complexity-induced error costs.[1] Ultimate X Gold appears consistent with that tradeoff: published “ten coin return” values cluster below 100%, yet the game allows rare but extreme favorable states.

7.2 Casino operational considerations

Persistent multipliers can create:

• Increased variance and conspicuous jackpot-like outcomes when high multipliers hit.
• Floor dynamics where informed players selectively enter “hot” multiplier states (vulturing), potentially reshaping theoretical hold.[1]
• Skill-segmentation: casual players fund the feature; skilled players extract conditional value.

7.3 Responsible communication of “>100% RTP”

For websites and educational content, the most accurate phrasing is:

• The long-run RTP (feature enabled, continuous play) is generally below 100% for the published pay tables and configurations.[1]
• The conditional, short-term expected return can exceed 100%—and in sufficiently strong multiplier states can approach ~200%—because multipliers persist and meaningfully amplify the expected value of certain hand categories.[1]

That distinction is the key to being both accurate and clear.

8. Conclusion

Ultimate X Gold is best understood as a multi-play draw poker game with a persistent multiplier state that induces a wide distribution of conditional expected values. Published tables indicate that long-run optimal returns when continuously purchasing the feature are typically just under 100%.[1] At the same time, Wizard of Odds explicitly notes that sufficiently strong multipliers can make the short-term return exceed 100%, enabling vulturing.[1]

A simple, transparent calculation using Wizard of Odds’ own decomposition of 9/6 Jacks or Better return components shows how a “near 200%” figure can be a defensible conditional claim: if roughly half of baseline return comes from multiplier-eligible categories and those categories are effectively tripled in a favorable state, the conditional return approaches 200% for a player who is not paying to rebuild the feature.[2]

In short: Ultimate X Gold is not a 200% RTP game in the long run, but it can present rare states where the next segment of play is strongly positive—sometimes dramatically so.